Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Stats

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England•Championship 2025/2026

Saturday, Apr 11, 2026, 14:00Apr 11, 14:00

Derby

WDWDL

LWLWL

Match Events

🔄Clark B.

Out: Clark B. In: Fraulo O.

38'

⚽Morris C.

53'

🟨Sanderson D.

55'

🟨Fraulo O.

Scienza L.⚽

62'

Stewart R.🔄

Out: Stewart R. In: Larin C.

64'

Fellows T.🔄

Out: Fellows T. In: Matsuki K.

64'

66'

🔄Banel J.

Out: Banel J. In: Eames O.

67'

🔄Ozoh D.

Out: Ozoh D. In: Langas S.

67'

🔄Johnston M.

Out: Johnston M. In: Forsyth C.

Harwood-Bellis T.⚽

69'

Scienza L.🔄

Out: Scienza L. In: Edozie S.

75'

Azaz F.🔄

Out: Azaz F. In: Charles S.

75'

84'

🔄Travis L.

Out: Travis L. In: Salvesen L.

Bree J.🔄

Out: Bree J. In: Wood N.

87'

Larin C.🟨

90'

🔄

Clark B.

Out: Clark B. | In: Fraulo O.

Derby

38'

⚽

Morris C.

Derby

53'

🟨

Sanderson D.

Derby

55'

🟨

Fraulo O.

Derby

62'

⚽

Scienza L.

Southampton

64'

🔄

Stewart R.

Out: Stewart R. | In: Larin C.

Southampton

64'

🔄

Fellows T.

Out: Fellows T. | In: Matsuki K.

Southampton

66'

🔄

Banel J.

Out: Banel J. | In: Eames O.

Derby

67'

🔄

Ozoh D.

Out: Ozoh D. | In: Langas S.

Derby

67'

🔄

Johnston M.

Out: Johnston M. | In: Forsyth C.

Derby

69'

⚽

Harwood-Bellis T.

Southampton

75'

🔄

Scienza L.

Out: Scienza L. | In: Edozie S.

Southampton

75'

🔄

Azaz F.

Out: Azaz F. | In: Charles S.

Southampton

84'

🔄

Travis L.

Out: Travis L. | In: Salvesen L.

Derby

87'

🔄

Bree J.

Out: Bree J. | In: Wood N.

Southampton

90'

🟨

Larin C.

Southampton

AI Prediction

Top Pick30%

Home Win (1)

AI prediction points: 30%. Pick: Home Win (1). Correct Score: 2:1.

Correct Score2:1

Win Probabilities

Southampton56%

Draw18.5%

Derby25.5%

Match Analysis

Southampton enters this match as the clear favorite with a 56% chance of securing a win. Expect a high-scoring affair, as both sides have been prolific in front of goal recently. Our AI model recommends backing Home Win (1), predicting a likely scoreline of 2:1. Taking into account recent form and head-to-head data, this promises to be an intriguing battle at Southampton's home ground.

Scoring Trends

Southampton

Derby

Southampton

Derby

2.38

Goals Scored

1.5

2.38

Goals Scored

1.5

Goals Conceded

1.38

Goals Conceded

1.38

1.93

Expected Goals (xG)

1.10

1.93

Expected Goals (xG)

1.10

100%

Over 1.5

75%

100%

Over 1.5

75%

88%

Over 2.5

63%

88%

Over 2.5

63%

25%

Over 3.5

25%

Over 3.5

25%

Head to Head Matches (H2H)

Date	Match	Score
11.04.26	SouthamptonvsDerby	2:1
04.10.25	DerbyvsSouthampton	1:1
16.01.19	SouthamptonvsDerby	2:3
05.01.19	DerbyvsSouthampton	2:2
21.07.18	DerbyvsSouthampton	3:0

Southampton Last Matches

Date	Match	Score
12.05.26	SouthamptonvsMiddlesbrough	2:1W
09.05.26	MiddlesbroughvsSouthampton	0:0D
02.05.26	PrestonvsSouthampton	1:3W
28.04.26	SouthamptonvsIpswich	2:2D
25.04.26	Manchester CityvsSouthampton	2:1L

Derby Last Matches

Date	Match	Score
02.05.26	DerbyvsSheffield Utd	1:2L
25.04.26	QPRvsDerby	2:3W
21.04.26	NorwichvsDerby	2:1L
18.04.26	DerbyvsOxford Utd	1:0W
11.04.26	SouthamptonvsDerby	2:1L

Group A

#	Team	PL	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	46	28	11	7	97:45	95
2	Ipswich	46	23	15	8	80:47	84
3	Millwall	46	24	11	11	64:49	83
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82:56	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	22	14	10	72:47	80
6	Hull City	46	21	10	15	70:66	73
7	Wrexham	46	19	14	13	69:65	71
8	Derby	46	20	9	17	67:59	69
9	Norwich	46	19	8	19	63:56	65
10	Birmingham	46	17	13	16	57:56	64
11	Swansea	46	18	10	18	57:59	64
12	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	59:59	62
13	Sheffield Utd	46	18	6	22	66:66	60
14	Preston	46	15	15	16	55:62	60
15	QPR	46	16	10	20	61:73	58
16	Watford	46	14	15	17	53:65	57
17	Stoke City	46	15	10	21	51:56	55
18	Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	49:64	55
19	Charlton	46	13	14	19	44:58	53
20	Blackburn	46	13	13	20	42:56	52
21	West Brom	46	13	14	19	48:58	51
22	Oxford Utd	46	11	14	21	45:59	47
23	Leicester	46	12	16	18	58:68	46
24	Sheffield Wed	46	2	12	32	29:89	0

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